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    Integrating Predictions in Time Series Model Selection

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    Date
    2015
    Author
    Bögl, Markus
    Aigner, Wolfgang
    Filzmoser, Peter
    Gschwandtner, Theresia
    Lammarsch, Tim
    Miksch, Silvia
    Rind, Alexander
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    Abstract
    Time series appear in many different domains. The main goal in time series analysis is to find a model for given time series. The selection of time series models is done iteratively based, usually, on information criteria and residual plots. These sources may show only small variations and, therefore, it is necessary to consider the prediction capabilities in the model selection process. When applying the model and including the prediction in an interactive visual interface it is still difficult to compare deviations from actual values or benchmark models. Judging which model fits the time series adequately is not well supported in current methods. We propose to combine visual and analytical methods to integrate the prediction capabilities in the model selection process and assist in the decision for an adequate and parsimonious model. In our approach a visual interactive interface is used to select and adjust time series models, utilize the prediction capabilities of models, and compare the prediction of multiple models in relation to the actual values.
    BibTeX
    @inproceedings {eurova.20151107,
    booktitle = {EuroVis Workshop on Visual Analytics (EuroVA)},
    editor = {E. Bertini and J. C. Roberts},
    title = {{Integrating Predictions in Time Series Model Selection}},
    author = {Bögl, Markus and Aigner, Wolfgang and Filzmoser, Peter and Gschwandtner, Theresia and Lammarsch, Tim and Miksch, Silvia and Rind, Alexander},
    year = {2015},
    publisher = {The Eurographics Association},
    DOI = {10.2312/eurova.20151107}
    }
    URI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/eurova.20151107
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    Eurographics Association copyright © 2013 - 2020 
    Send Feedback | Contact - Imprint | Data Privacy Policy | Disable Google Analytics
    Theme by @mire NV
    System hosted at  Graz University of Technology.
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